Nigeria’s inflation just hit its lowest level since 2020. Your petrol bill didn’t get the memo.
The scoreboard looks good
The National Bureau of Statistics says inflation slowed to 14.63% in September, down from nearly 21% a year ago. It was the fourth straight monthly drop. The central bank joined in last month, cutting its benchmark rate to 23%, and the naira has held steady near ₦1,330 to the dollar.
On paper, relief is on the way.
Then you pull up to the pump
Between August 21 and September 12, Dangote Refinery raised its petrol gantry price four times, from ₦1,165 to ₦1,350 a litre. That’s about 16% in three weeks. Since then prices have wobbled sideways: ₦1,344 on October 20, according to market listings.
By the time it reaches you, it’s dearer. NNPC stations are charging ₦1,405 a litre, and some Abuja stations are at ₦1,409. NNPC’s app discount of ₦66 a litre brings that down to ₦1,339, but only until October 31.
The usual suspect is crude oil. Marketers blame higher global prices as the Middle East conflict drags on.
Why a giant local refinery hasn’t fixed it
Here’s the twist. Domestic refineries supplied about 71% of Nigeria’s petrol in August, yet pump prices still sat between ₦1,350 and ₦1,450.
The reason is simple: petrol here is priced like a global commodity. If crude costs more, so does the fuel made from it. And according to the Finance Minister, Nigeria has fewer than 700,000 barrels a day freely available, roughly what Dangote alone needs.
The ripple effect
Fuel doesn’t stay at the filling station. It moves into bus fares, the cost of trucking food to market, and the diesel that keeps shops and small factories running.
That’s why food inflation is still stuck near 20% even as the headline number falls. The World Bank says overall inflation has hovered around 15.5% this year, more than double the rate in peer countries. And commuters report that fares rarely drop when fuel prices dip.
Enter the election
Nigerians vote on January 16, 2027, and fuel is now political. The Finance Minister has floated a fixed gantry price of ₦1,375 before the vote. The central bank has warned that election spending and Middle East tensions could undo the progress on inflation. Others argue markets are calmer this time, helped by strong pension and insurance funds.
Nobody knows how it plays out. That’s the point.
Dates to circle
- October 31: NNPC’s discount ends
- November 16: October inflation figures, with core inflation in focus
- November 23-24: the central bank’s next rate decision
The bottom line
Inflation is cooling, but unevenly. Until fuel prices settle, expect your budget to feel tighter than the headline suggests. Plan for petrol to stay expensive, and watch the dates above.
General information only, not financial advice. Prices change fast, so check current figures.
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